ATLANTIC OCEAN (July 23, 2008) The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) conducts rudder swing checks in the Atlantic Ocean after completing a six-month planned incremental availability at Norfolk Naval Shipyard. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Rafael Figueroa-Medina)
Menace of the growing red fleet
Cameron Stewart | August 23, 2008
AS the gleaming Great White Fleet of the US Navy sailed into SydneyHarbour 100 years ago this week, Australia was given the first glimpse of its own strategic future.
"When the fleet entered the Pacific we remarked that the centre of gravity of sea power had changed," The Sydney Morning Herald observed. "What the future of the Pacific is to be only the future can disclose (but) it is likely enough that America may become our first line of defence against Asia." Two world wars and one Cold War later, there is still a powerful ring of truth to these prophetic words. The US Navy still rules the waves across the vast Pacific Ocean and the US fleet, in a time of crisis, would be pivotal to Australia's ability to repel a regional aggressor.
But just as the Great White Fleet symbolised the rise of American naval power, the strategic balance in the Pacific a century later is being tested by a new player.
The slow, steady rise of China as a maritime power is increasingly concentrating the minds of defence planners in Washington and Canberra as they try to gauge its significance and weigh its implications for the region. The latest and most stunning example of China's expanding naval ambitions in the Pacific is the recent confirmation of a new underground nuclear submarine base near Sanya, on HainanIsland off China's southern coast.
Western intelligence agencies have been trying to glean information about the construction of Sanya for years because the new base says much about China's ambitions to create a genuine blue water navy that can project power well beyond China's shores and throughout the Pacific.
Sanya is reportedly being fitted out with underground berths for up to 20 advanced submarines and has facilities to house several aircraft carriers that China does not yet own. "China's nuclear and naval build-up at Sanya underlines Beijing's desire to assert tight control over this region," according to the respected defence journal Jane's Defence Weekly.
"This development, so close to the Southeast Asian sea lanes so vital to the economies of Asia, can only cause concern far beyond these straits."
Concern in Australian defence circles about China's naval expansion is real and rising but it is also kept firmly behind closed doors. While politicians and diplomats speak glowingly about Australia's relations with China, the burgeoning trade links and shared interests, a small team of defence planners in Canberra is planning how best to handle China's naval challenge to the region. The new defence white paper to be released at the end of the year will be framed with China's naval expansion prominent in the minds of the authors. "I don't think there is any serious view in the Australian defence establishment that Australia somehow needs to be prepared to face China single-handedly," says Rory Medcalf, director of international security at Sydney's Lowy Institute for International Policy.
"The question is, would we be called upon to assist in some sort of contingency, and what would we contribute?"
In Washington there is also much debate about how to deal with China's naval ambitions, including ways to strengthen co-operation and trust between the two navies. So far there has been little progress.
"The US-China naval partnership remains weak," Medcalf says. "The US Pacific Command's early efforts to draw Beijing into co-operation and transparency - such as naval exercises, visits and dialogue - have struggled. China last year cancelled US ship visits to Hong Kong to show disapproval over US Tibet and Taiwan policies. This reinforced US mistrust. And China remains deeply suspicious of American intent."
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