The West, collectively, failed in this crisis. Georgia wasted its dime making that famous 3am telephone call to the White House, the one Hillary Clinton referred to in a campaign ad questioning Barack Obama’s fitness for the Presidency. Moreover, the blood on the Bear’s claws did not go unobserved in other states that were once part of the Soviet Union. Russia demonstrated unambiguously that it could have marched directly to Tbilisi and installed a puppet government before any Western leader was able to turn away from the Olympic Games. It could, presumably, do the same to them.
Simply put: the Russian engagement in Georgia has been and continues to be an unmitigated disaster for Russia. She has shown the West - the US, Europe and those who share Western values that she just doesn't give a rat's ass about what we think. Russia is emboldened by it's oil wealth and what it believes is it's stranglehold on all of Europe because of that oil. It laid a fairly neat little ambush of Georgia and either because they lacked the intelligence information the US must have had, or didn't believe that intelligence or figured the US would come charging to their rescue, the Georgians rushed into the ambush and Russian snapped the trap closed.
Unfortunately for Russia, I believe that this and their complete disdain for the U.S. and Western value nations, is going to lead to the brink of the end of Russia as any sort of World power. If the US chose to do so, we could RIGHT NOW, close those THREE highways from Russia into Georgia and the tunnels they go through and keep them closed, militarily. There is no doubt in my mind that the Russian Naval Squadron currently sitting in Poti harbor could wind up rusting away there if the US chooses to make it sit there (or sink) and backs the Ukraine's refusal to allow any Russian ships out to or in from the Black Sea.
And of course, secure that ever so precious pipeline.
Which leaves a Russian expeditionary force (it's not really big enough to be considered an Army) without supplies of any type, without reinforcements, without any air support and without any choice but to fight to the last man or surrender, SHOULD the US make that decision - it manifestly is NOT a decision that Russia can make. They have taken their best shot at Georgia (again should the US decide to make it so) and will wind up losing.
Russia has already, for all intents and purposes, lost the Ukraine, it's influence in the Baltic nations, and ALL of what we used to call Eastern Europe (Poland, Czechoslovakia, "East" Germany, etc.).
As a result of Putin's folly (again SHOULD the US make the right decisions here) Russia is in fact MORE isolated than ever; their new "5 year plans" for agricultural self-sufficiency (something it took Russia a long time to realize, because it was inconceivable that the Ukraine - breadbasket of the USSR - might NOT be willing to sell or trade it's food to Mother Russia) is nothing but pieces of paper now; China - even while in the midst of showing the World how modern they have become at the Olympics, has in fact been eying parts of Russia (the port of Vladivostok, much of Siberia and other parts of Russia) with unfeigned interest and desire and to whom can the Russian Bear turn to help it out?
Seriously folks, to whom can Russia turn for help?
Of course this all turns on US resolve that if we don't stop Russia in Georgia, Russian may not be stoppable.
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