ADF -Forward Thinking

Agility key for future defence force
Patrick Walters, National security editor
May 17, 2007

AUSTRALIA'S defence force of the future must place a premium on agility and adaptability to win wars and be prepared to face a more uncertain global and regional environment in 2030.
A defence planning document says that warning times for the development of new crises and of weapons systems that could threaten Australia's security are shortening.

"Evidence suggest that, for most likely contingencies, future adversaries would be able to acquire the capability or capacity to threaten Australia or our national interests before we could develop a capability edge to counter that threat," the paper says. Reduced lead times for crises, and weapons systems made it vital that Australia should boost investment in intelligence and surveillance systems to provide sufficient warning for defence planners.
Future security challenges will dictate a deepening interdependence with key allies, especially the US.

The ADF's joint operations blueprint says Australia's future adversaries, including non-state actors, ie terrorists, could employ increasingly sophisticated communications, intelligence and surveillance systems and more lethal force, possibly including chemical, biological and radiological weapons. The document says the ADF must adapt from a force heavily weighted to countering a conventional military threat against Australia to a more versatile force.

Tomorrow's soldiers will make full use of hi-tech unmanned platforms in military operations ranging from frequent low-intensity stabilisation operations to high-intensity war-fighting. Defence Force Chief Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston yesterday released the blueprint for joint operations in the 21st century, saying recruitment and retention of personnel remained the "single biggest strategic issue" facing the ADF.

The ADF needed to grow to a full-time strength of 57,000 by 2016 up from its current level of 51,000. This would mean lifting full-time annual recruit numbers from 4670 to 6500.
Air Chief Marshal Houston said the Government's $3 billion investment in recruitment and retention measures had already had a positive effect, with full-time general-entry recruitment running at 92 per cent of target so far in 2007.

The joint operations planning document warns against relying too heavily on "niche" capabilities to ensure Australia's long-term security. Future war-fighting will involve "multi-dimensional manoeuvre" of combat forces with joint operations involving complete networking of all the force elements on land, sea and air to produce a range of effects to defeat the enemy.

"The ADF must move to develop a hardened, networked, deployable joint force that is characterised by adaptability and agility to handle the full range of military operations across the full spectrum of conflicts," it says.

The evolution of 21st century warfare would mean that increasingly land forces would adopt "special forces" characteristics with greater emphasis on stealth and precision.

The Australian

----

Plans to put up a fight
Defence planners have written a new blueprint for fighting future wars, writes national security editor Patrick Walters
May 19, 2007

AUSTRALIA'S war planners have peered into the future and don't like what they see.
The world in 2030 is likely to be a more chaotic place, with myriad global and regional threats that could affect Australia.

Besides the traditional threats, a whole range of other scenarios could challenge Australia's security, according to the Defence Department's new blueprint for future war fighting.
These include the runaway effects of climate change, the accelerating depletion of global resources such as fish stocks, and the multiple security challenges presented by failed states in our region.

During the next 30 years, population growth will continue to soar, with Indonesia's population likely to top 300million and India's 1.5 billion. By contrast with its expanding neighbours, Australia's ageing population will total only about 25 million.

Our relatively small defence force will be asked to do more on top of its core challenge of securing the 10 per cent of the earth's surface, stretching from the Cocos Islands to New Zealand, that constitute Australia's area of direct military interest. By 2030 China and India, both equipped with powerful naval forces, will emerge as the dominant powers in Asia, with China's gross domestic product tipped to easily exceed that of the US.

This week the department issued a new planning document called Joint Operations for the 21st Century, which looks at how the Australian Defence Force may have to fight in 2030.
It outlines a more ambitious all-encompassing regional and global role for the ADF, ranging from war fighting to humanitarian relief. This broader mandate, if it is to be fully realised, will dictate a far greater investment in defence by future governments.

Emerging threats will demand a military of the utmost agility and versatility, able to defend Australia from conventional assault but also able to lead coalition operations in the neighbourhood and defeat unconventional non-state enemies. "Rapid rates of technological change with respect to military capability and the altering human organisation of warfare pose substantial military challenges for the ADF," the document says. It argues that developing nations could quickly invest in innovative technology "to rapidly match or leapfrog the forces of developed nations" such as Australia.

It also contends that warning times for future crises and the development of military capabilities that could threaten Australia are decreasing. "Evidence suggests that, for most likely contingencies, future adversaries would be able to acquire the capability to threaten Australia before we could develop a capability edge to counter that threat," the document says. Stripped of the dense military jargon, it anticipates a world in which terrorists and other non-state groups could acquire far more dangerous weapons including chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear devices.

Four key drivers will be essential to maintaining the long-term military prowess of the ADF: people, money, technology and alliances. The ADF says it must grow from today's permanent strength of 51,000 to about 58,000 if it is to successfully operate in a more chaotic, disordered world.

In a speech launching the document this week, defence chief Angus Houston nominated people as the biggest strategic issue confronting the ADF. Importantly, he also charted the sustained increase in the ADF's operating tempo overseas during the past 25 years. Between 1980 and 1989 there were 16 defence operational deployments abroad, comprising about 1000 personnel; in the next decade there were 82 deployments involving 17,000 personnel. According to Houston, at least 35,000 personnel have already taken part in operations over the six years from 2001.

To meet its existing 57,000 target by 2016, the ADF will need to increase enlistments from 4670 a year to 6500, an increase of about 40 per cent on the existing annual intake; it will also need to reduce the present resignation rate of about 11 per cent. The strength of Australia's labour market makes this a formidable challenge.

Australians will also have to get used to a permanently higher level of defence spending. This year's defence budget grew by nearly 8 per cent in real terms to $22 billion. The department will demand annual increases in the defence vote of at least 3 per cent to 4 per cent indefinitely if its vision of a hi-tech, fully networked force is to achieved.

The paper also acknowledges that demographics will shape the way the ADF approaches future wars and accelerate the trend towards unmanned fighting vehicles. The Defence Science and Technology Organisation is investing heavily in research that will create an automated battle space where unmanned air, ground and underwater combat vehicles are networked, taking soldiers, sailors and airmen out of harm's way. At the same time, Houston says, the ADF should expect to become involved in more operations that are low-intensity, such as peace stabilisation deployments, which require more boots on the ground.

The paper acknowledges that Australia cannot be militarily self-reliant and underlines the enormous importance of the US alliance in boosting our long-term military capability as well as providing vital flows of intelligence.

In the decades ahead it sees deepening interdependence between allied military forces. In Australia's case this will include Japan and regional allies such as Singapore, with increased sharing of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance tasks. Houston says his vision for the ADF is a "balanced, networked and deployable force" that is adaptable and excels at joint and coalition operations.

The war planners see Australia's military in 2030 using highly networked communications systems to dominate the battlefield, applying lethal force in close combat or from big distances.
But Andrew Davies from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute says the days in which Australia had a clear technological edge in military hardware over regional neighbours are over.

"That means that we will have to be smarter in the ways that we use our equipment. A focus on stealth for aircraft, networking, electronic warfare and employment of advanced stand-off weapons makes a lot of sense in that context."

Davies says the ADF must be able to counter sophisticated new platforms such as submarines. The next decade will see more than 80 new boats appear in regional navies' inventories, including that of China.

"That will be a real challenge for the RAN. Submarines are tough adversaries, and serious investment in anti-submarine warfare will be required to allow the navy to be able to operate in a place of its choosing," he says.

Davies says the future ADF can't expect a potential adversary to fight symmetrically on our strengths. Just how the ADF and other arms of government will work together to defeat terrorism, cyber warfare or the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is another key issue, he argues.

Strategic analyst Paul Dibb warns that the ADF "can't have everything" when it comes to planning for the future. Dibb, a former senior Australian defence intelligence official, also warns that in making long-term predictions, analysts often get it wrong. Australian intelligence analysts failed to anticipate the strategic consequences of the fall of Saigon in 1975 or the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union.

"In its overly ambitious reach for a small force like ours, the document seeks to cover everything from pandemics to high-intensity conflict. How are we going to do that in the face of adverse demographic and financial pressures in the future, both of which are acknowledged in the document?" Dibb asks.