Red Dragon

Chinese Airforce

joined the bloglist, cheers Mr Tastic

http://neo-contastic.blogspot.com

--

StrategyCenter.net

--

Russia, China Solidify Disturbing Alliance
Dr. Alexandr Nemets Wednesday, May 31, 2006

The Chinese-Russian alliance has made much progress since I last reported on this and related matters in mid-2003.

Indeed, recent events have warranted an update as the two countries have intensified their activities. And the best summary of these changes is provided by the Chinese media.
The "International Survey" article published by Beijing-based Liaowang Weeklyat at the beginning of January 2006 offers great insight into current American-Russian relations:

"The American-Russian struggle recently became really fierce. America wants to utilize Russia's temporary weakness for spreading and upgrading its own influence inside Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

"For these purposes, America uses such tools as 'democratic reconstructions' [and] plans to fulfill a 'peaceful transformation' of Russia, just as it happened already in Ukraine, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan.

"In the second half of 2005, the American [idea] of a 'weak Russia' and Russia's own [idea] of a 'strong Russia' fiercely collided . . . Russia gave up its long-term policy of 'passive defense' and . . . expanded investments into defense and enhanced ties with key countries in Central Asia. As a result . . . America had to withdraw [in the second half of 2005] troops from Uzbekistan, and Russia and Uzbekistan signed an agreement . . ."

Russia and China are moving towards a "multi-polar world" in which China and Russia would be dominant players.

According to Liaowang Weeklyat, "Based on the common interests and common ideas Chinese-Russian relations of a strategic cooperation partnership [during 2004-2005] additionally deepened and became extremely close.

"China and Russia are sparing no efforts for building the 'multi-polar world' and democratization of international relations and are mutually assisting in this endeavor.

"New mechanisms of providing Chinese-Russian security have been introduced already.

Bilateral strategic and military-security cooperation steadily develop[ed] on the solid base of Chinese-Russian joint military maneuvers in August 2005. Chinese-Russian cooperation in the frame of Shanghai Cooperation Organization [dominated by China and Russia and including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan] contributes greatly here."
China and Russia are also moving toward improved trade relations:

"Chinese-Russian trade is growing rapidly, particularly in the energy area. In 2006, Russia intends to deliver to China by railway 15 million tons of crude oil. Several oil and gas pipelines will connect the two countries.

"Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov emphasized at the end of 2005: 'Presently there are no serious political problems between China and Russia capable of influencing the two-side relations development.'

China is eyeing the American influence on Japan. The paper had this to say about the American-Japanese alliance: "America actively stimulates the introduction of [non-peaceful] changes into the Japanese Peaceful Constitution and the expansion of Japanese military spending for the purpose of 'taking additional responsibility for international security.'

"America considers Japan as a key link in U.S. global military force structure. Integration of U.S. Forces and Japanese Self Defense Forces (SDF) accelerates. U.S.-Japan joint development of Theater Missile Defense (TMD) System accelerates also . . . The eventual goal here is joint U.S.-Japan domination in the Asian-Pacific region.

"American strategy is increasingly aimed at the containment of China. The 'China Military Potential Report' issued recently by the U.S.

Defense Department emphasizes the 'China Threat Theory.' Forthcoming 'American Defense Quadrennial Estimation' also considers the restraining of China as a major goal of U.S. military strategy.

"Japan cannot accept the rise of China. This results in long-term [straining of] Chinese-Japanese relations. Japanese leaders consider China's rise as a threat. Moreover, Japan cooperates with Taiwanese separatist forces, thus trying to 'contain China by Taiwan.' Shortly, Japan, with American assistance will try to hinder the historical process of China's peaceful rise."

This article raises serious issues. And the situation is ever-evolving: the Chinese-Russian alliance enjoyed additional development from January to May of 2006, and the Hu Jintao-Putin summit in Beijing on March 21-23 contributed greatly.

Opinions of Russian military experts in Krasnaya Zvezda Daily (the official paper of the Russian Army), issued during this summit and instantly after it, are of particular interest:
China and Russia still have some problems in the trade-economic cooperation area, but such problems are absent in political and military cooperation, where the two countries have, in practice, coinciding approaches.

During the recent summit in Beijing, China and Russia solidified a cooperative and unified approach towards Shanghai Cooperation Organization development, the situation in Afghanistan, the Middle East situation, the North Korean nuclear problem, and Central Asian development. Particularly, they will work out the united approach towards Iran's nuclear program. Both sides are against passing this problem to the UN Security Council.

The summit also resulted in an upgrade of bilateral cooperation in military-technological and pure military cooperation. The large-scale joint military maneuvers "Peace Mission-2005" in August 2005 demonstrated that Chinese-Russian military cooperation far surpassed the weapon trade activity. Moreover, military cooperation now provides the cornerstone in bilateral relations.

China and Russia pursue very important goals. Mutual support in the struggle for these goals, confirmed by the Chinese-Russian summit in March 2006, predetermined an additional rise of bilateral cooperation in strategic, political, diplomatic, military, and economic areas. The following is a brief list of these goals broken down by country:

China

Regarding Taiwan: The victory of a Guomindang (Nationalist Party) candidate at presidential elections in March 2008. Solidifying the Beijing-Taipei agreement about Taiwan reunification with Mainland China. Eventually, formalization of Greater China (Mainland China plus Taiwan plus Hong Kong). Russia supports China in this area.

On Korea: China's goal is to protect Pyongyang from any serious action from the American-Japanese alliance. China hopes to increase its influence in South Korea. Russia supports China in Korea. Remarkably, from 2001-2005 Pyongyang's regime transformed into a member of the Chinese-Russian alliance.

Plans for the South China Sea and Southeast Asia: China's goal is to have direct control over most parts of the South China Sea, and to establish domination in the mainland part of Southeast Asia. Russia, generally, supports China in this area. Particularly, Moscow is interested in the weapon markets of Southeast Asia.

The Japan solution: China is striving for a concession of 200,000 square kilometers of a disputed piece of the East China Sea reportedly rich with hydrocarbon deposits and terminating the consolidation of a U.S.-Japanese alliance. Russia supports China by increasing diplomatic and even military pressure on Japan.

Military cooperation with Russia: Using military-technological cooperation with Russia and Belarus for Chinese modernization and minimizing PLA lag behind U.S. Forces.

Relying on Russia's resources: China will use Russian energy and natural resources for smooth development of Chinese economy.

Science and technology: China will cooperate with Russia (outside of weapon R&D) for achieving breakthroughs in some key areas (including dual-use items), primarily, in space technology, nuclear technology, and new materials. Russia

Russia's revival: "Great Russia," to emerge; namely, reestablishing Moscow's domination over post-Soviet territory. Moscow will focus activity in Ukraine, Georgia, the entire Caucasus region, and Central Asia, aimed at "pushing America and NATO out of post-Soviet republics."

Russia will ratchet up its struggle against NATO eastward expansion. China supports Russia in both directions. As destructive as these individual goals may be, the two countries' common goals are even more problematic.

China continues to pursue unlimited access to Central Asian hydrocarbon resources and other natural resources, and to involve the entire Central Asia in SCO and eliminate any military presence of America or NATO in this key region. Russia's goals are the same regarding Central Asia.

China and Russia actively support the Iranian regime economically, politically and militarily. Moscow and Beijing particularly assist Tehran's military modernization and won't accept any Western sanctions against Iran, even if Tehran obtains nuclear weapons.

Russia and China also support Syrian and Palestinian autonomy. Russia and China are really interested in the defeat of America and its allies in Iraq.

Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is the co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics" and the "Russian-Chinese Alliance."